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Date: Tue, 20 Nov 2001 07:56:35 -0800 (PST)
From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com
To: vkamins@ect.enron.com
Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Tue, Nov 20, 2001
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[IMAGE]=09


[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, =
LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  H=
ouston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   D=
evelopment Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  =
Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      =09  =09 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version=
 of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you woul=
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ersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Tuesday, Nov 20, 2001 at 10=
:35AM EST    Commentary last updated: Tuesday, Nov 20, 2001 at 09:42AM EST =
 Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy /  True Quote     Congratulat=
ions Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQU=
ILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit=
: AMS  or Aquila    Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum T=
emperature'     Today: Tuesday, November 20, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Del=
ta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMA=
GE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 42 +3 ERCOT(SP) 58 -=
1 FRCC(SE) 78 NC MAAC(NE) 47 +1 MAIN(CTR) 45 +3 MAPP(HP) 50 +2 NPCC(NE) 45 =
NC SERC(SE) 59 +1 SPP(SP) 57 NC WSCC(NW) 52 +2 WSCC(RK) 56 -1 WSCC(SW) 66 +=
1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP S=
W Mean 40 48 46 47 44 60 52 62 Max 45 57 49 52 56 64 62 68 Min 35 42 42 44 =
33 57 44 57 Range 10 15 7 8 23 7 18 11 StD-P 3.1 5.2 1.2 2.1 7.0 2.2 3.9 2.=
9 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Us=
ed Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:  Models converging o=
n an increasingly stormy pattern. The question still to be answered is when=
 the arctic air arrives.  The current cool down in the East is very transit=
ional with warmer air to return by the end of the week. The pattern has cle=
arly changed as the jet stream has been suppressed Southward. In the short =
(and medium) terms, things should turn stormier, but not neccessarily colde=
r. In fact, latest charts indicate a healthy ridge to build late this perio=
d over the SE U.S. in response to a trough developing over the Rockies. Thi=
s opens the Gulf of Mexico up in a moisture sense, but any winter snows loo=
k to be confined to the extreme Northern tier of states. Much needed rains =
may fall from the Plains to the East Coast by the weekend in areas that hav=
e been parched this Fall. In terms of temperatu! res, 5 day averages will n=
ot depart significantly from normal the rest of the week though the trend l=
ate in the period will be for a warmer East and a cooler West.  Tomorrow: W=
ednesday, November 21, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility =
Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image t=
o enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 47 +1 ERCOT(SP) 63 -2 FRCC(SE) 74 +3 MAAC(=
NE) 45 +1 MAIN(CTR) 51 -1 MAPP(HP) 52 -1 NPCC(NE) 40 NC SERC(SE) 58 +2 SPP(=
SP) 59 -3 WSCC(NW) 49 -1 WSCC(RK) 49 -2 WSCC(SW) 64 -1     Range Standard D=
eviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 44 47 38 45 43 =
55 57 60 Max 53 57 43 51 52 62 67 67 Min 37 39 32 41 35 47 49 55 Range 16 1=
8 11 10 17 15 18 12 StD-P 4.7 4.5 2.8 2.2 4.0 4.1 4.0 2.6 Count 12 12 12 12=
 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volat=
ility Matrix   Day 3: Thursday, November 22, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Del=
ta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMA=
GE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 51 +2 ERCOT(SP) 69 +=
1 FRCC(SE) 77 +4 MAAC(NE) 50 NC MAIN(CTR) 49 NC MAPP(HP) 46 NC NPCC(NE) 44 =
+2 SERC(SE) 62 NC SPP(SP) 53 -6 WSCC(NW) 47 -2 WSCC(RK) 43 -5 WSCC(SW) 62 -=
3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP S=
W Mean 44 44 41 44 38 59 61 58 Max 49 47 47 48 45 66 65 61 Min 40 38 34 41 =
30 56 56 54 Range 9 9 13 7 15 10 9 7 StD-P 2.9 3.0 3.3 1.8 4.9 3.0 2.8 2.7 =
Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used=
 Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 4: Friday, November 23, 2001   Syncrasy=
's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAG=
E]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 51 NC=
 ERCOT(SP) 70 -3 FRCC(SE) 79 +3 MAAC(NE) 52 -1 MAIN(CTR) 48 -1 MAPP(HP) 45 =
NC NPCC(NE) 45 -2 SERC(SE) 63 -1 SPP(SP) 57 -2 WSCC(NW) 45 -1 WSCC(RK) 42 -=
1 WSCC(SW) 60 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP N=
E NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 42 44 40 34 64 62 55 Max 51 47 47 45 43 66 67 60 M=
in 43 38 40 38 29 61 54 52 Range 8 9 7 7 14 5 13 8 StD-P 2.6 2.7 2.2 1.3 2.=
8 1.4 4.8 2.1 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecas=
t Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 5: Saturday, November 24, 2001   =
Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMA=
GE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CT=
R) 51 -1 ERCOT(SP) 72 NC FRCC(SE) 80 +2 MAAC(NE) 56 +3 MAIN(CTR) 50 -2 MAPP=
(HP) 43 NC NPCC(NE) 45 -2 SERC(SE) 67 NC SPP(SP) 56 -3 WSCC(NW) 43 -1 WSCC(=
RK) 39 NC WSCC(SW) 56 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg=
 CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 38 50 37 31 66 63 51 Max 48 43 54 43 40 69=
 68 56 Min 43 34 47 35 25 63 57 47 Range 5 9 7 8 15 6 11 9 StD-P 1.8 2.6 1.=
9 1.4 3.5 2.1 4.2 2.7 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather=
 Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:   I hav=
e been consistently forecasting colder air (along with most others) in the =
6-10 day period for a couple of weeks now. It has been slow in developing a=
nd the cool down now in the East would hardly be considered significant unl=
ess it is compared to the record warmth of the last couple of weeks. The pa=
ttern I foresee going into early December is colder relative to normal in t=
he West and warmer in the East. Specifically a storm track from the SW into=
 the Plains and NE will set up allowing for generous rain (with snow North)=
 to develop. Arctic air is moving to this side of the pole and pooling in N=
W Canada. Now, a mechanism to drive it SE is needed. One of the tools used =
that I occasionally refer to is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).  Most=
 winter forecasts have predicted this as largely negative this se! ason whi=
ch is a robust signal for cold air in the East. It has been negative the la=
st two weeks though in fairness its reliability as a signal gets much highe=
r in December for cold. I find it interesting to note the signal is expecte=
d to go weakly positive next week. Bottom line for the period is I see a co=
ntinuation of a cold bias with the Western trough and a warm bias in the vi=
cinity of the Eastern ridge. We may also see a significant storm move throu=
gh the country during the period, but again I look for snow to be confined =
to the North.    Day 6: Sunday, November 25, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Del=
ta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMA=
GE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 52 +1 ERCOT(SP) 73 +=
2 FRCC(SE) 80 +2 MAAC(NE) 56 +1 MAIN(CTR) 50 +3 MAPP(HP) 40 +2 NPCC(NE) 48 =
+1 SERC(SE) 67 NC SPP(SP) 56 NC WSCC(NW) 42 -2 WSCC(RK) 34 NC WSCC(SW) 56 -=
1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP S=
W Mean 44 35 51 36 29 66 66 48 Max 47 40 55 42 37 69 71 56 Min 42 30 48 34 =
21 63 64 45 Range 5 10 7 8 16 6 7 11 StD-P 1.0 3.1 2.3 2.0 5.2 2.1 2.6 2.8 =
Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within =
the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Monday, November 26, 2001   Syncrasy's Choic=
e:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMA=
GE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 52 +4 ERCOT(S=
P) 71 +6 FRCC(SE) 79 +1 MAAC(NE) 54 +2 MAIN(CTR) 48 +3 MAPP(HP) 36 NC NPCC(=
NE) 49 +3 SERC(SE) 68 +4 SPP(SP) 55 +1 WSCC(NW) 43 NC WSCC(RK) 32 -3 WSCC(S=
W) 55 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK =
SE SP SW Mean 46 35 47 35 24 67 65 46 Max 50 42 52 43 34 70 71 55 Min 44 30=
 45 31 16 64 61 42 Range 6 12 7 12 18 6 10 13 StD-P 1.6 4.0 2.1 2.5 5.3 1.6=
 3.2 3.9 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Use=
d Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 8: Tuesday, November 27, 2001   Syncra=
sy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IM=
AGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 50 =
-5 ERCOT(SP) 52 -4 FRCC(SE) 72 NC MAAC(NE) 59 +9 MAIN(CTR) 36 -14 MAPP(HP) =
27 -4 NPCC(NE) 53 +13 SERC(SE) 63 -2 SPP(SP) 36 -6 WSCC(NW) 30 -1 WSCC(RK) =
16 +5 WSCC(SW) 45 +3     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT =
HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 44 28 48 34 21 65 56 47 Max 57 39 55 42 33 68 70 =
56 Min 39 22 42 30 17 63 48 44 Range 18 17 13 12 16 5 22 12 StD-P 5.9 4.8 3=
.9 2.8 4.9 1.4 6.8 3.4 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here  to See Each Weathe=
r Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Wednesday, November 2=
8, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IM=
AGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]=
   ECAR(CTR) 33 -12 ERCOT(SP) 52 -2 FRCC(SE) 71 -2 MAAC(NE) 40 -19 MAIN(CTR=
) 29 -3 MAPP(HP) 19 +2 NPCC(NE) 41 -10 SERC(SE) 51 -14 SPP(SP) 37 +5 WSCC(N=
W) 27 -5 WSCC(RK) 19 +9 WSCC(SW) 43 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE]=
 [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 21 45 31 21 61 51 45 Max 52 =
25 51 35 24 68 62 49 Min 28 16 40 27 18 55 46 43 Range 24 9 11 8 6 13 16 6 =
StD-P 6.5 2.7 3.5 2.8 1.7 4.8 5.1 2.1 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to =
See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 10: Thurs=
day, November 29, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matri=
x    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enl=
arge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 30 -8 ERCOT(SP) 61 +9 FRCC(SE) 72 NC MAAC(NE) 3=
4 -22 MAIN(CTR) 27 +2 MAPP(HP) 20 +5 NPCC(NE) 34 -13 SERC(SE) 55 -6 SPP(SP)=
 41 +4 WSCC(NW) 27 -6 WSCC(RK) 16 -7 WSCC(SW) 39 -9     Range Standard Devi=
ation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 18 41 29 17 58 =
48 40 Max 33 20 53 31 26 61 56 44 Min 26 12 34 27 8 56 34 34 Range 7 8 19 4=
 18 5 22 10 StD-P 2.6 3.5 5.5 1.7 4.1 1.0 6.9 2.6 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Cli=
ck Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    =
Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma disp=
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ww.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE=
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